Abstract
This study applies an integrated methodology to assess short-term over-levee risk and long-term water shortage risk in the Da-Han Creek basin, which is the most important flood control and water storage system in northern Taiwan. An optimization model for reservoir flood control and water supply is adopted, to determine reservoir releases based on synthetic inflow hydrographs during typhoons, which are generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The release is then used to calculate the water level at a downstream control point using a novel developed back-propagation neural network-based model, to reduce computational complexity and achieve automatic-efficient risk evaluation. The calculated downstream water levels and final reservoir water levels after a typhoon event are used to evaluate the mapped over-levee risk and water shortage risk, respectively. The results showed that the different upper limit settings for the reservoir have a significant influence on the variation of 1.19 × 10−5% to 75.6% of the water shortage risk. This occurs because of the insufficient inflow and narrow storage capacity of the Shih-Men Reservoir during drought periods. However, the upper limit settings have a minor influence (with a variation of only 0.149% to 0.157%) on the over-levee risk in typhoon periods, because of the high protection standards for the downstream embankment.
Highlights
A reservoir can be operated for various purposes, such as water supply, flood control, power generation and entertainment
The results showed that the single-moment errors of mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) were showed that the single-moment errors of MAE and MSE were small, demonstrating an accurate small, demonstrating an accurate simulation trend
This study proposed an integrated methodology for simultaneously estimating over-levee risks during typhoon periods and shortage risks during drought periods for different upper limit settings of hedging operation rules in the Shih-Men Reservoir
Summary
A reservoir can be operated for various purposes, such as water supply, flood control, power generation and entertainment. A management model is usually built for either short-term planning, such as flood control during storms [1,2,3,4,5,6,7], or long-term planning, such as water flow distribution optimization [8,9,10,11] and reservoir operation rule optimization [12,13,14,15,16,17] Those studies developed complete formulations and algorithms for managing the abovementioned planning topics. Short-term flood damage risk is caused by flooding from external waters (i.e., creek, river) during reservoir operations, and inundation risk is caused by flooding from internal waters (i.e., rainwater from the urban inland) during the operations of
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