Risk analysis of cruise ship supply chain based on the set pair analysis-Markov chain model

Abstract

The cruise industry, which serves as a prominent exemplar of globalized business, is characterized by unique features that render its supply chain operations highly susceptible to various risk factors, thereby giving rise to significant consequences. Evaluating the risks associated with major disruptive events and enhancing the robustness of the cruise supply chain have become crucial issues of concern for various stakeholders. This study first develops an indicator evaluation system for assessing the risks of China's cruise supply chain, drawing upon relevant literature and expert interview opinions. Secondly, set pair analysis is utilized to identify the scores and trends of risk indicators in China's cruise supply chain. Thirdly, the Set pair analysis-Markov chain model is employed to forecast the future risk status of China's cruise supply chain system, and the influence of different weights on the prediction results is discussed. Finally, the risk evolution network of China's cruise supply chain is constructed to identify common risk consequences and visualize the evolution path of risk events, with the aim of providing reference for the formulation of prevention and control measures. The findings of this article have important consequences for improving risk mitigation strategies and enhancing the resilience of the cruise supply chain.