Rice Production in Davao Region: A Time Series Model

Abstract

This study generates trend analysis on the data of rice production and farm gate price, insights on the initiatives to address issues on rice production and farm gate price and relevance of the quantitative data and initiatives. This paper employed the five-tier model of the Theory of Needs by Abraham Maslow which solidifies the urgency of analyzing trends in rice production and farm gate prices to gauge their implication for the food security of humans (Mcleod, 2020). As such, this study utilized a mixed method of quantitative and qualitative design. Trend analysis and moving average were used for the quantitative aspect while content analysis and systems synthesis for the qualitative part. This study did not require any interviews because it used secondary data from open-source statistics. Findings show that rice production and farm gate prices seemed to be affected following the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL) passage. Following the deregulation, rice imports have significantly increased, resulting in the prices at the farm gate declining (Briones, 2019). Moreover, the communal irrigation initiative for the Davao Region should also be examined for the decrease in rice production during the 13th (January-March 2020) and 17th (January-March 2021) caused by the periodic dry season of rice. As this study focuses on a regional scope, the researchers recommend future researchers conduct national studies on a broader spectrum, to examine government actions on rice production and farm gate prices, and to provide a nationally appropriate hypothesis. Other techniques may also be used by future researchers such as in-depth interviews with farmers providing a more comprehensive view of the data and evaluating the impact of government efforts.