RICE PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN APPLICATION OF AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG

Abstract

Inconsistent and inefficient policies, climate issues and general poor funding have been adjudged to hinder increased domestic rice production in Nigeria. Rather than tackling these challenges, the nation has continued to opt for importation to supplement her domestic production, if not for recently, as a ‘stop-gap’ for food security. Geared towards strengthening the resilient efforts of the small holder farmers and driving increased rice production, this paper examined the trends in rice imports and production between 1980 and 2021; and also identified the determinants of rice imports in Nigeria. Secondary data were used for this study, while descriptive statistics and ARDL model were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the average quantities of rice production and rice imports were 3.51 and 0.24 million tons over the periods. The periods between 1998 and 2007 experienced a wide volatility of rice imports over rice production. Again, the results of ARDL model implied that exchange rate, GDP and quantity of rice production were statistically significant in influencing changes in the quantity of rice imports in the area. Therefore, since GDP and quantity of rice production had negative relationship with rice imports, it would be suggested that efforts geared at increasing rice production in Nigeria should be tailored at revamping agricultural extension services to enhance a genuine two-way communication between researchers and the farmers vis-à-vis increase food production.
 Keywords: Rice Imports, Trends, Rice Production, ARDL Model, Nigeria.