آیا واردات برنج به ایران بی رویه است

Abstract

Introduction: The persistence of rice imports while domestic production shows an increase over time has resulted in forming this hypothesis among rice producers in Iran that import of the rice is unjustified. This study is seeking to evaluate this hypothesis. Materials and Methods: The relationship between the import of rice and the quantities of domestic production as well as the other theoretically possible factors explaining import over period 1981-2014, including domestic/world market relative price, exchange rate, domestic income, population, tariff rate are investigated using exploratory data analysis (EDA) approach. In addition, the relationship between import and these factors is quantified using ECM econometric methodology. Furthermore, the VAR framework is utilized to specify causality between the above-mentioned variables and quantities of rice imported. Results and Discussion: Results from EDA revealed that there is not a clear relationship between the quantities of domestically produced rice and the imported quantities, while such a relationship is shown between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported. In addition, the quantities of imported rice are not related to the domestic/world price ratio. Moreover, EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price of rice. Results from EDA are supported by the co-integration and ECM methodology. The Granger causality between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported which was tested within VAR framework indicates that there is a one way causality from the first variable to the second one. Furthermore, the estimated ECM shows that the effect of per capita crude oil revenue on quantities of imported rice is higher in log relative to the short run. A one-dollar increase in per capita crude oil revenue results in 360 metric tons import of rice in the long run while the same one dollar increase will result in 290 metric tons import of rice in the short run. These results support the hypothesis that import of the rice is an unstructured import which may hurt domestic rice producers. Finally, calculation of the intra industry trade index indicates that intra-industry trade theory cannot explain the increasing trend of rice import in Iran. Conclusions: Given that the per capita oil revenue is the main determinant of the rice imports, besides the fact that EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price (terms of trade) of rice and reaching below one led to the conclusion that the unjustified import hypothesis is confirmed in Iran. Accordingly, a revise in rice import is suggested. Specifically, decoupling rice import from crude oil revenues and limiting import, using price elasticity information, to keep an increase in the price of this commodity equivalent to the CPI growth rate for domestic producers is suggested.