Revisiting risk prediction tools for death and end-stage renal disease in older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease: a prospective study.

Abstract

Risk assessment tools for predicting mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the elderly with CKD have received growing attention. However, integrating risk equations into a multidimensional approach of elderly with CKD stage 3b-4 is lacking. In this prospective observational study, we enrolled CKD stage 3b-4 patients aged ≥ 65years. Bansal score for predicting mortality risk and Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) for estimating progression to ESRD were applied. Predicted outcome was compared with actual clinical end-points. All patients underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), which is an interdisciplinary multidimensional process for geriatric evaluation and management. Participants (N = 184) were divided into two groups, according to Bansal score: Group 1 (low-risk of death, Bansal score < 7, N = 69) and Group 2 (high-risk of death, Bansal score ≥ 7, N = 115). Group 2 displayed a substantially higher cardiovascular disease burden than Group 1 and was significantly more likely to be depressed and at risk of malnutrition, according to CGA. Thirty-seven patients died, and 16 started dialysis. Group 2 displayed significantly higher all-cause mortality. In the univariable Cox regression, Group 2 had a fourfold increase in the risk of all-cause mortality, as compared with Group 1 (HR = 4.29, 95% CI 1.88-10.26, P < 0.001). Multivariable stepwise Cox analysis showed that Bansal score above 7 remained significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 3.96, 95% CI 1.68-9.29, P < 0.001). Group 2 also displayed higher event rates for dialysis initiation. In Group 1, only four patients started dialysis, and three out of them had a high-risk of progression at baseline, according to KFRE. Using risk stratification tools and CGA in a population of elderly with advanced CKD, we found that two-thirds of the patients were at high risk of death, malnutrition and depression, with multimorbidity and four times worse probability of survival than those at lower risk of death.