Revisiting and reimagining scholarly approaches: assessing the notion of intensity in complex non-international armed conflicts through aggregation

Abstract

Non-international armed conflicts, where a multiplicity of organized armed groups operate in close spatial and temporal proximity, challenge those tasked with conflict classification. The ICRC 2019 Challenges Report specifically flagged the difficulty in determining whether the necessary level of intensity is met in such situations where alliances or coalitions of distinct non-state armed groups engage a common enemy. This reality demands an alternative to the traditional bilateral intensity assessment approach. This contribution explores existing scholarly aggregation models in the context of ongoing conflicts to establish how these could be reimagined to be fit for purpose. These formulations include three types of approaches: first, the approach demanding a temporal and geographic continuum; second, two different views on the approach limiting aggregate assessment to coalitions; and, finally, the approach necessitating a common enemy. It is argued that these formulations may result in over-classification of non-international armed conflicts if applied as is across the board. This contribution proposes reimagined aggregation assessment models to be applied only if matched with the suggested corresponding categories of complex conflict setting.