Reviewing Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contribution: A New Perspective Using the Marginal Cost of Abatement

Daniel Escobar Carbonari,Bjoern Ole Sander,Tran Dai Nghia,Godefroy Grosjean,Jeimar Tapasco,Leocadio Sebastian,Peter Läderach,Justin Mckinley

doi:10.3389/fsufs.2019.00014

Abstract

The processes countries use to revise their Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) under the UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement will be key to ensure that their pledges give effective climate change policy. In many developing countries, the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is central to their NDCs. We generated a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for Vietnam’s AFOLU sector and used it to review the country’s mitigation pledges for this sector. We conclude that Vietnam could increase the emission pledges in its NDC, especially in future land use. Other options for mitigation at negative cost include water techniques in rice, agroforestry and management of livestock diets and manure. The MAC curve alone is insufficient to prioritize policy options for climate change policy, however, because it underestimates adaptation co-benefits, for example, in protected mangrove systems

Highlights

The UNFCCC Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean temperatures to 2◦C above preindustrial levels and if possible, to 1.5◦C
The cumulative mitigation potential from 2020 to 2030 of these 41 options is 405.3 Mt CO2eq (40.5 Mt CO2eq/year) of which Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) contributes about 73%. This is comparable, for instance, to 51% of the total emissions projected for Vietnam by 2030 under the business as usual (BAU) scenario in country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
We cannot provide a year-by-year comparison between the mitigation potential of the options used in this study and those from the mitigation scenario in Vietnam’s NDC

Summary

Introduction

The UNFCCC Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean temperatures to 2◦C above preindustrial levels and if possible, to 1.5◦C. In preparation for the Agreement, 192 countries submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases. These INDCs became Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) when each country ratified the Agreement. Countries have taken various approaches in designing their NDCs. Some set absolute targets for reducing emissions, while others set targets below forecasted business as usual (BAU) scenarios or by emission intensity (Briner and Moarif, 2016). The NDC system was designed as a bottom-up process based on self-determination and trust in collective action (Deprez et al, 2015). The NDCs reflected both differing emphasis between sectors and differing

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Conclusion