Abstract
Agricultural emissions account for 53% of 2010 global non-CO2 emissions and are projected to increase substantially over the next 20 years, especially in Asia, Latin America and Africa. While agriculture is a substantial source of emissions, it is also generally considered to be a potential source of cost-effective non-CO2 GHG abatement. Previous “bottom-up” analyses provided marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for use in modeling these options within economy-wide and global mitigation analyses. In this paper, we utilize updated economic and biophysical data and models developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to investigate regional mitigation potential for major sources of agricultural GHG emissions. In addition, we explore mitigation potential available at costs at or below the estimated benefits of mitigation, as represented by the social cost of carbon. Key enhancements over previous regional assessments include incorporation of additional mitigation options, updated baseline emissions projections, greater spatial disaggregation, and development of MAC curves through 2030. For croplands and rice cultivation, biophysical, process-based models (DAYCENT and DNDC) are used to simulate yields and net GHG emissions under baseline and mitigation scenarios while the livestock sector is modeled by applying key mitigation options to baselines compiled by EPA. MAC curves are generated accounting for net GHG reductions, yield effects, livestock productivity effects, commodity prices, labor requirements, and capital costs where appropriate. MAC curves are developed at the regional level and reveal large potential for non-CO2 GHG mitigation at low carbon prices, especially in Asia.
Highlights
The agricultural sector is a substantial source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the largest source of non-carbon dioxide GHG emissions, accounting for53% of global non-CO2 emissions in 2010 (US Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA] 2012)
For croplands and DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) for rice cultivation—were used for both the baseline emissions estimates and the GHG implications of mitigation options, allowing for a clear identification of baseline management conditions and consistent estimates of changes to those conditions through mitigation activities.2. Emissions obtained using these detailed simulation models differ from those obtained in USEPA (2012), which relied upon Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default emissions factors (IPCC 2006)
The mitigation measures selected for cropland management and rice cultivation were based on assessment of options that could be modelled at the global level using the currently available versions of the Daily Century (DAYCENT) and DNDC models
Summary
53% of global non-CO2 emissions in 2010 (US Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA] 2012). Changes in soil carbon are important determinants of net GHG emissions for soil management and rice cultivation. This sector offers the potential to provide relatively low-cost opportunities for GHG mitigation. There is wide variation across previous studies in regional, sectoral, and GHG coverage and disaggregation, as well as in the potential mitigation and cost reported. In order to build upon the existing literature and provide a detailed set of marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves using consistent methods across all countries for all significant non-CO2 GHG emitting sectors, USEPA conducted a major study to update previous USEPA estimates of mitigation cost and potential (USEPA 2013, 2014). We calculate potential mitigation available at private costs at or below the social benefits of GHG mitigation, as represented by the social cost of carbon (Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon 2015)
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