Abstract

This study focuses on low-carbon transitions in the mid-term and analyzes mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030 in a comparison based on bottom-up-type models. The study provides in-depth analyses of technological mitigation potentials and costs by sector and analyzes marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves from 0 to 200 US $/tCO2 eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US $/tCO2 eq in 2020 and 2030, respectively. In China and India, results of GHG emissions relative to 2005 vary very widely due to the difference in baseline emissions as well as the diffusion rate of mitigation technologies. Future portfolios of advanced technologies and energy resources, especially nuclear and renewable energies, are the most prominent reasons for the difference in MAC curves. Transitions toward a low-carbon society are not in line with current trends, and will require drastic GHG reductions, hence it is important to discuss how to overcome various existing barriers such as energy security constraints and technological restrictions.

Highlights

  • International negotiations under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have focused on mid-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the context of long-term GHG emission projections and climate change stabilization

  • This study focuses on low-carbon transitions in the mid-term and analyzes mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030 in a comparison based on bottom-up-type models

  • This comparison study follows the same definition and marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves in 2020 and 2030 in major GHG emitting countries are shown in Fig. 1 by plotting mitigation potentials relative to the baseline for the each model at a certain carbon price

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Summary

Introduction

International negotiations under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have focused on mid-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the context of long-term GHG emission projections and climate change stabilization. This comparison study focuses on the results of mitigation potentials and costs using energy-engineering bottom-up models for multi-regions and multi-sectors.

Results
Conclusion
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