Abstract

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> A common strategy for calculating the direction and rate of carbon dioxide gas (CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>) exchange between the ocean and atmosphere relies on knowledge of the partial pressure of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> in surface seawater (<span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span>), a quantity that is frequently observed by autonomous sensors on ships and moored buoys, albeit with significant spatial and temporal gaps. Here we present a monthly gridded data product of <span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span> at 0.25<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> latitude by 0.25<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> longitude resolution in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, centered on the California Current System (CCS) and spanning all months from January 1998 to December 2020. The data product (RFR-CCS; Sharp et al., 2022; <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5523389">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5523389</a>) was created using observations from the most recent (2021) version of the Surface Ocean CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> Atlas (Bakker et al., 2016). These observations were fit against a variety of collocated and contemporaneous satellite- and model-derived surface variables using a random forest regression (RFR) model. We validate RFR-CCS in multiple ways, including direct comparisons with observations from sensors on moored buoys, and find that the data product effectively captures seasonal <span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span> cycles at nearshore sites. This result is notable because global gridded <span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span> products do not capture local variability effectively in this region, suggesting that RFR-CCS is a better option than regional extractions from global products to represent <span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span> in the CCS over the last 2 decades. Lessons learned from the construction of RFR-CCS provide insight into how global <span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span> products could effectively characterize seasonal variability in nearshore coastal environments. We briefly review the physical and biological processes – acting across a variety of spatial and temporal scales – that are responsible for the latitudinal and nearshore-to-offshore <span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span> gradients seen in the RFR-CCS reconstruction of <span class="inline-formula"><i>p</i></span>CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2(sw)</sub></span>. RFR-CCS will be valuable for the validation of high-resolution models, the attribution of spatiotemporal carbonate system variability to physical and biological drivers, and the quantification of multiyear trends and interannual variability of ocean acidification.

Highlights

  • The concentration of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere has rapidly increased from about 280 parts per million in 1750 to over 400 parts per million today (Joos and Spahni, 2008; Dlugokencky and Tans, 2019)

  • 85 Here, we present a reconstruction of pCO2(sw) (1998–2020) in a broad region of the Northeast Pacific (NEP) that includes the California Current System (CCS), surrounding open-ocean regions, and the highly variable continental shelf of the North American west coast spanning from southern Alaska to Baja California

  • RFR-CCS was constructed from pCO2(sw) observations in the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas version 2021 (Bakker et al, 2016), which were related to predictor variables (Table 1) using a random forest regression approach

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Summary

Introduction

The concentration of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere has rapidly increased from about 280 parts per million in 1750 to over 400 parts per million today (Joos and Spahni, 2008; Dlugokencky and Tans, 2019). This rise in CO2 concentration is a direct result of human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and agriculture (Ciais et al, 30 2014; Friedlingstein et al, 2020). A portion of anthropogenic CO2 (~25%) dissolves directly into the ocean (Friedlingstein et al, 2020), mitigating its warming potential. A primary method for calculating the amount of CO2 transferred to the ocean requires knowing the difference between the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere and surface seawater

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