Review of risk assessment methods for infectious diseases

Abstract

At present, the global epidemic situation of infectious diseases is becoming more and more serious and complex, which brings difficulties and challenges to the prevention and control of infectious diseases and poses a serious threat to public health and safety. The premise and basis of the prevention and control of infectious diseases is to carry out scientific risk assessment. Firstly, the common risk assessment methods were introduced, and the limitations of these one-time static assessment methods were analysed. Then the dynamic risk assessment methods for the transmission of infectious diseases were introduced, and expressing the transmission of infectious diseases as scenarios was proposed. Scenarios were deduced to predict the future development trends of infectious diseases. It is of great positive significance to evaluate the risks of infectious diseases according to different development trends, and realize the transition from traditional “prediction-response” to “scenario-response” for improving the emergency management capability of the transmission of infectious diseases.