Review of Current and Future Consumption Trends for Milk and Dairy Products

Abstract

The objectives of this paper are 1) to review previous US milk consumption data by product; 2) to discuss factors that have affected consumption; and 3) to predict future trends in consumption. Per capita commercial demand for milk and dairy products on a milk equivalent basis has been stable at 236kg (520lb) in the past 15 yr. Aggregate demand has increased directly in relation to population growth. The mix of factors affecting demand for milk and dairy products suggests that per capita commercial demand will continue to hold at about 238kg (525lb) milk equivalent in this next decade. Demographics, particularly higher median age in the United States, will have a dampening effect on demand. However, relatively low consumer prices for milk and dairy products, increased real incomes, and vigorous generic promotion programs should effectively hold per capita demand at recent amounts. Assuming an annual population growth of .9% in the United States to 1995, an aggregate commercial demand of 61.9 billion kg (136.5 billion lb) of milk would be generated in that year. Farm use of milk, school milk, and limited Commodity Credit Corporation donations could increase total milk usage to almost 65 billion kg (145 billion lb) in 1995.