Reverse trajectory study of oil spill risk in Cyclades Islands of the Aegean Sea

Abstract

The impact of hypothetical oil spills in Cyclades Islands (Aegean Sea, Eastern Mediterranean) is investigated by a reverse trajectory method whereby tracers have been back-tracked using surface current and wind data from 2013 to 2018. Results show that the westernmost islands of the archipelago (Kithnos, Kea, Andros) are at high risk all year round due to the proximity to the western oil tanker route (Bosphorus to Western Mediterranean). The arrival time of oil to these islands is less than 1 day, with the involvement of the entire perimeter of each island. The eastern islands are exposed to oil coming from the eastern oil tanker route (Bosphorus to Suez). In the summer, oil can reach the northern coast of Amorgos and Donousa in less than 1 day and Naxos in less than 2 days due to persistent ‘meltemi’ and induced surface current. Oil surveillance (for example by SAR) should focus all year round on the western route and on the eastern route north of the archipelago during the summer.