Revealing the role of past and current climate in shaping the distribution of two parapatric European bats, Myotis daubentonii and M. capaccinii

Abstract

In this contribution, we aim at determining the role of climate in shaping the current and historical (Last Glacial Maximum and Middle Holocene) distributions of two parapatric bat species (Myotis daubentonii and Myotis capaccinii) in Europe, using ensemble Habitat Suitability Modelling (HSM). Model projection to current climatic conditions predicted distributions largely coherent with the ones observed for the two species in the study area. Temperature- and precipitation-linked variables well accounted for the observed parapatry of the two target species. Moreover, areas of co-occurrence turned out to be those where the main ecological needs concerning the most important range-limiting variables are met for both species. Model projections to past scenarios allowed us to hypothesize the effects of climatic oscillations over the distribution of the two species during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Extreme range contractions during the Last Glacial Maximum and the subsequent expansions during Middle Holocene were predicted, consistently with general patterns of post-glacial recolonization routes of many temperate bat species in Europe. Our findings are largely coherent with recent phylogeographic studies investigating the two target species, thus corroborating the validity of potential distribution scenarios obtained from the models and, more importantly, confirming the great influence that glacial cycles had in shaping the biogeography of the European fauna.