Return of the Dragon: Rising China and Regional Security

Abstract

Return of Dragon: Rising China and Regional Security. By Denny Roy. New York: Columbia University Press, 2013. Hardcover: 279pp. Denny Roy's comprehensive survey examines impact of growing military and economic power through lens of that Roy perceives to be underway in East Asia. This will not necessarily lead to between United States and China, but cost of avoiding it would be the abdication of America's position as great power in to permit a hegemonic transition without hegemonic war (pp. 57, 140). Even if two powers find modus vivendi, growing strength will increase domestic pressure on Beijing to act more assertively abroad (pp. 35, 258), and other nations will have to adjust to reality of Chinese dominance. In any case, book concludes, China's continued growth into Great Power or regional hegemon will likely lead to net reduction in security for most of world (p. 262). Roy begins his analysis with distinctive elements of worldview. First among these is lessons from past: that China deserves to regain its position as world's greatest country; that China must not be divided, and therefore must regain lost territory such as Taiwan; and that world's other Great Powers are ruthless and exploitative and will oppose rise (p. 15). Equally important is Chinese exceptionalism, belief that China as Great Power will not behave as others have done because it is acutely conscious of having been downtrodden, because it is an inherently defensive country that never makes unless attacked, never seeks etc. (pp. 24-26). Yet despite this self-image, Roy asserts, Beijing's desire and intention is to make eastern Asia ... Chinese sphere of to be the preeminent power and rule maker within region (p. 161). The volume alternates chapters analyzing broader issues--military power, risks of conflict, factors that mitigate such risk etc.--with chapters examining how that affects neighbours and international system. The explicitly zero-sum analysis assumes that for one Great Power to have more security, neighbouring Great Power must have less (p. 57). As balance shifts in favour, Vietnam is acknowledging Chinese hegemony, bending to Chinese power but not breaking (p. 117). China and India are locked in struggle of containment and counter-containment, each seeking to limit other's influence (pp. 107-08). rise is closing space for Russia's re-emergence as Great Power, and may either re-kindle Sino[degrees]Russian tensions (p. 103) or force Moscow to accept subordinate status to avoid serious tensions with Beijing (p. 128). Japan is losing badly in centuries-long competition for regional leadership (p. 89), but Roy does not take sides between those who think Tokyo will turn to appeasement and those who expect full rearmament and cold with China, only two outcomes he considers (p. 102). These somewhat controversial judgments aside, author does good job outlining issues at play in each relationship and in overall strategic environment. …