Retrospective analysis of weather conditions in environs of Myronivka Institute of Wheat

Abstract

Introduction. Variation of weather conditions in cropping seasons (as a result of global climate change) significantly effects on formation of yield components for any crops, including winter wheat.Aim. To conduct retrospective analysis of weather conditions in environs of the V.M. Remeslo Myronivka Institute of Wheat of NAAS in order to correct long-term programs on bread winter wheat breeding in consideration of climate changes.Methods. The coefficient of deviation essentiality of hydrothermal regime elements relative to multi-annual average means according to Ped D.A. method was used to study weather conditions monthly during 30 years (1981- 2010).Results. Environs of Myronivka Institute of Wheat are characterized by favorable climate conditions for growing bread winter wheat. Average annual air temperature is7°C. July is the hottest month of the year; January is the coldest one with average temperature +20.1°C in July and-4.7°C in January. Average July temperatures varied within +17.2…+24.1°C, and in January they did within -1.7…-15.4°C.In 30 years (1981-2010) there is observed increasing average air temperatures, especially in the 2001-2010 (min8.0°Cand max9.9°C).The years 1985, 1987, 1989, 1990, 2000, 2002, 2007-2010 appear to be rare by coefficient of deviation essentiality for air temperature relative to multi-annual average mean. When analyzing air temperature in the 30-year period (1981-2010), it is possible to assert its increasing with each next decade. That is, based on this coefficient upward, the number of months with conditions close to rare increased from 4.2 to 10%.Coefficient of deviation essentiality of precipitation monthly in 30 years studied (1981-2010) was various. In March 1991, April 1984, 1988, 1991-1994, May 1981, 1983, 1986, 1998, June 1986, July 1989, 1992, and 1994 rainfalls were insufficient. Resulted from observations in 1981-2010 there is a tendency to increasing frequency of sharp fluctuations in rainfall with each next decade. The share of months with conditions being close to rare increased from 3.3 to 10%.Conclusions. According to the analysis of weather conditions over the 30-year period (1981-2010), during spring and summer growing seasons of winter wheat there were observed significant deviations in air temperature and rainfall by months from multi-year average indices. Coefficient of deviation essentiality confirmed a tendency to increase the percentage of months with conditions close to the rare for rainfall from 3.3 to 10% and for temperatures from 4.2 to 10%.