Retrieving seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates from annual growth rates that are reported quarterly

Abstract

Most macroeconomic time series are reported on a quarterly basis. However, in many cases, official statistical agencies report annual (or ‘year-on-year’) growth rates rather than the quarterly data themselves. In this paper, we demonstrate how to recover seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates from annual growth rates that are reported quarterly. As an illustration, we apply the technique to the highly seasonal UK Retail Sales series. Using only the annual growth rates calculated from the underlying data, we find that our procedure generates estimated seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates that are almost indistinguishable from the ‘true’ seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates.