RETRACTION: Peng Zhang, Chance-constrained multiperiod mean absolute deviation uncertain portfolio selection

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new multiperiod mean absolute deviation uncertain chance-constrained portfolio selection model with transaction costs, borrowing constraints, threshold constraints and cardinality constraints. In proposed model, the return rate of asset is quantified by uncertain expected value and the risk is characterized by uncertain absolute deviation. The chance constraints are that the uncertain expected return of the portfolio selection is bigger than the preset return of investors under the given confidence level. Cardinality constraints limit the number of assets in the optimal portfolio and threshold constraints limit the amount of capital to be invested in each asset and prevent very small investments in any asset. Based on uncertain theories, the model is converted to a dynamic optimization problem. Because of the transaction costs and cardinality constraints, the multiperiod portfolio selection is a mix integer dynamic optimization problem with path dependence, which is NP hard problem. The proposed model is approximated to a mix integer dynamic programming model. A novel discrete iteration method is designed to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy, and is proved linearly convergent. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the behavior of the proposed model and the designed algorithm using real data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange.