Abstract
Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar backgroundmagnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outerlayers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next threedecades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the otherhand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunderminimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by avalue of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increaseof the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these twoopposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic fieldvariations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strongoscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand(350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. Inaddition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a periodof 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a runningaveraging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latestminimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solarminimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start.Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700. These oscillations of thebaseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertialmotion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase ofsolar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. This trendis anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a furthernatural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.
Highlights
As we shown earlier[5,6], the resulting summary curve of the two magnetic waves detected with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) can be used for prediction of a solar activity usually associated with the averaged sunspot numbers[5,6]
In this paper we reproduced the summary curve of the solar magnetic field associated with solar activity[5,6] for the one hundred thousand years backward by using the formulas describing the sum of the two principal components found from the full disk solar magnetograms
E curve shows the solar activity for every 11 years and occurrence of 9 grand solar cycles of 350–400 years, which are caused by the beating effects of two magnetic waves generated by solar dynamo at the inner and outer layers inside the solar interior with close but not equal frequencies[6]
Summary
As we shown earlier[5,6], the resulting summary curve of the two magnetic waves detected with PCA can be used for prediction of a solar activity usually associated with the averaged sunspot numbers[5,6]. R For the further information we present in Fig. 3 (bottom plot) the variations of the Earth temperature for the A past 140 years as derived by Akasofu[26] with the solid dark line showing the baseline increase of the temperature, blue and red areas show natural oscillations of this temperature caused by combined terrestrial causes and solar activity. Any human-induced contributions can make this increase more unpredictable and difficult to handle if they will override the effects on the temperature induced by the Sun. We have to emphasize that there still will be, the usual magnetic field and temperature oscillations caused by standard solar activity cycles of 11 and 350–400 years as reported before[6] occurring on top of these baseline oscillations caused by SIM. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, but only the effects of solar activity itself and solar inertial motion
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