Rethinking the balance-of-payments-constrained approach, in the light of the recent commodity boom

Abstract

We develop a balance-of-payments-constrained growth (BPCG) model to explain the specific conditions of small commodity-dependent countries. Based on Thirlwall’s model and subsequent contributions, we elaborate a new model that assumes exogenous export prices, infinite price elasticity of export demand, and supply of commodities that react to prices with positive, but not infinite, elasticity. We contribute to explaining the central role of export prices and the relevance of price competitiveness in the growth dynamics. It is shown that a real devaluation and an improvement in terms of trade (TT) in a context of increasing international prices increase the equilibrium growth rate. However, export prices are more relevant than import prices in determining the growth of these countries, challenging the traditional interpretation of TT. Moreover, our model enriches the extensive literature which has corroborated that a development strategy based exclusively on increasing production capacity in commodity sectors is doomed to fail.