Rethinking East Asian security

Abstract

As in other regions, international security in East Asia has been transformed by the end of the Cold War. Yet, debate about the direction of change, let alone the reality of the transformation, has been much slower to develop in this region than in Europe. The reasons for these tardy reactions suggest that East Asians, and an interested wider world, have serious cause for concern about the risks of conflict in East Asia. The debate about East Asian security is dominated by two theories of the future. On the one hand, there is the 'back to the future' view espoused by realists, who argue that the end of the Cold War has released indigenous conflicts that were previously suppressed. It is argued that Asia could easily destabilise, with a classical balance of power politics coming to dominate the international relations of the region. On the other hand, the more liberal view argues that the complex interdependence of the late twentieth century has curtailed military rivalry between industrialised states. The East Asian states, especially Japan and the newly industrialising countries (NICs), are ensnared in this web of trading and financial dependencies. Combined with the decline of the divisive influence of the Cold War, this interdependence can eradicate serious conflict in the region. Both of these arguments are persuasive, but the fear is that the pessimists may be closer to the truth. Assessing the balance between them is complicated by the aversion of Asians to being honest about their security concerns.