Restoration Trajectories and Ecological Thresholds during Planted Urban Forest Successional Development

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Successfully reconstructing functioning forest ecosystems from early-successional tree plantings is a long-term process that often lacks monitoring. Many projects lack observations of critical successional information, such as the restoration trajectory of key ecosystem attributes and ecological thresholds, which signal that management actions are needed. Here, we present results from a 65 ha urban temperate rainforest restoration project in Aotearoa New Zealand, where trees have been planted annually on public retired pasture land, forming a 14 years chronosequence. In 25 plots (100 m2 each), we measured key ecosystem attributes that typically change during forest succession: native tree basal area, canopy openness, non-native herbaceous ground cover, leaf litter cover, ground fern cover, dead trees, and native tree seedling abundance and richness. We also monitored for the appearance of physiologically-sensitive plant guilds (moss, ferns, and epiphytes) that may be considered ecological indicators of succession. Linear regression models identified relationships between all but one of the key ecosystem attributes and forest age (years since planting). Further, using breakpoint analysis, we found that ecological thresholds occurred in many ecosystem attributes during their restoration trajectories: reduced canopy openness (99.8% to 3.4%; 9.6 years threshold), non-native herbaceous ground cover (100% to 0; 10.9 years threshold), leaf litter cover (0 to 95%; 10.8 years threshold), and increased tree deaths (0 to 4; 11 years threshold). Further, juvenile native plant recruitment increased (tree seedling abundance 0 to ~150 per 4 m2), tree seedling species richness (0 to 13 per 100 m2) and epiphytes colonized (0 to 3 individuals per 100 m2). These and other physiologically-sensitive plant guilds appeared around the 11 years mark, confirming their utility as ecological indicators during monitoring. Our results indicate that measurable, ecological thresholds occur during the restoration trajectories of ecosystem attributes, and they are predictable. If detected, these thresholds can inform project timelines and, along with use of ecological indicators, inform management interventions.