Responses of spring wheat growth to climate change in different climatic regions of northwest China

Abstract

AbstractThis study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on spring wheat production and to provide more accurate projections by directly investigating the effect of climate change on crop development and yield. Based on ground observation data from 1981 (1986 Dingxi) to 2020 in four case areas in northwest China, and the relationships among spring wheat growth, yield, and climate factors were analyzed and determined. The results showed that the extreme arid (Dunhuang) and semiarid regions (Dingxi) tend to be warmer and wetter, whereas arid regions (Wuwei) and semihumid regions (Linxia) tend to be warmer and drier. Correlation analysis indicated that yield of spring wheat in Wuwei, Dingxi, and Linxia Stations increased significantly. The decrease in the number of days (≥30 °C) during the growth period at Wuwei resulted in a significant yield increase in the past 40 years. At Dingxi, yield increased over the last 35 years due to the significant increases in precipitation during growth, the number of grains per panicle, and thousand‐grain weight, and the decrease in infertile spikelets. Further increase in global temperature and changes in future precipitation patterns will likely affect spring wheat production in northwest China.