Response of tree phenology to climate change across Europe

Abstract

To investigate the impact of recent climatic changes on the plant development in Europe, this study uses phenological data of the International Phenological Gardens for the period 1969–1998. For this study, the leafing dates of four tree species ( Betula pubescens, Prunus avium, Sorbus aucuparia and Ribes alpinum) were combined in an annual leaf unfolding index to define the beginning of growing season. The end of growing season was defined using the average leaf fall of B. pubescens, P. avium, Salix smithiana and R. alpinum. A nearly Europe-wide warming in the early spring (February–April) over the last 30 years (1969–1998) led to an earlier beginning of growing season by 8 days. The observed trends in the onset of spring corresponded well with changes in air temperature and circulation ( North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO-index)) across Europe. In late winter and early spring, the positive phase of NAO increased clearly, leading to prevailing westerly winds and thus to higher temperatures in the period February–April. Since the end of the 1980s the changes in circulation, air temperature and the beginning of spring time were striking. The investigation showed that a warming in the early spring (February–April) by 1°C causes an advance in the beginning of growing season of 7 days. The observed extension of growing season was mainly the result of an earlier onset of spring. An increase of mean annual air temperature by 1°C led to an extension of 5 days.