Response of streamflow to climate change in a sub-basin of the source region of the Yellow River based on a tank model

Pan Wu,Sihai Liang,Xu-Sheng Wang

doi:10.5194/piahs-379-231-2018

Pan Wu, Sihai Liang + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-231-2018

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Abstract

Abstract. Though extensive researches were conducted in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) to analyse climate change influence on streamflow, however, few researches concentrate on streamflow of the sub-basin above the Huangheyan station in the SRYR (HSRYR) where a water retaining dam was built in the outlet in 1999. To improve the reservoir regulation strategies, this study analysed streamflow change of the HSRYR in a mesoscale. A tank model (TM) was proposed and calibrated with monthly observation streamflow from 1991 to 1998. In the validation period, though there is a simulation deviation during the water storage and power generation period, simulated streamflow agrees favourably with observation data from 2008 to 2013. The model was further validated by two inside lakes area obtained from Landsat 5, 7, 8 datasets from 2000 to 2014, and significant correlations were found between the simulated lake outlet runoff and respective lake area. Then 21 Global Climate Models (GCM) ensembled data of three emission scenarios (SRA2, SRA1B and SRB1) were downscaled and used as input to the TM to simulate the runoff change of three benchmark periods 2011–2030 (2020s), 2046–2065 (2050s), 2080–2099 (2090s), respectively. Though temperature increase dramatically, these projected results similarly indicated that streamflow shows an increase trend in the long term. Runoff increase is mainly caused by increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Water resources distribution is projected to change from summer-autumn dominant to autumn winter dominant. Annual lowest runoff will occur in May caused by earlier snow melting and increasing evaporation in March. According to the obtained results, winter runoff should be artificially stored by reservoir regulation in the future to prevent zero-flow occurrent in May. This research is helpful for water resources management and provides a better understand of streamflow change caused by climate change in the future.

Highlights

Climate change (IPCC, 2007) and uncertainties of global water resources change caused draw extensive attention all over the world (Taylor et al, 2013; Bae et al, 2008; Lan et al, 2009)
As the water tower of Asia (Immerzeel et al, 2010), the Tibetan Plateau is sensitive to climate change (Su et al, 2016; Li et al, 2014; Yang et al 2012; Li et al, 2013)
Huangheyan station, two lakes which play a role as nature reservoirs for the basin located in the topside source region of the Yellow River (HSRYR) with area about 21 000 km2 (Liang et al, 2010; Brierley et al, 2016)

Summary

Introduction

Climate change (IPCC, 2007) and uncertainties of global water resources change caused draw extensive attention all over the world (Taylor et al, 2013; Bae et al, 2008; Lan et al, 2009). As the water tower of Asia (Immerzeel et al, 2010), the Tibetan Plateau is sensitive to climate change (Su et al, 2016; Li et al, 2014; Yang et al 2012; Li et al, 2013). Water resources and runoff response to climate change of the Yellow River basin have been extensively researched (Yang et al, 2004; Fu et al., 2004; Chang et al, 2007), especially in the head water of the Yellow River (Wang and Cheng, 2000; Tang et al, 2008; Zheng et al, 2009, 2010; Liang et al, 2010; Lan et al, 2010, 2013). Though projections of runoff change were proposed by inputting the GCMs

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