Response of Soybean and Sorghum to Varying Spatial Scales of Climate Change Scenarios in the Southeastern United States

Abstract

This study examines how uncertainty associated with the spatial scale of climate change scenarios influences estimates of soybean and sorghum yield response in the southeastern United States. We investigated response using coarse (300-km, CSIRO) and fine (50-km, RCM) scale climate change scenarios and considering climate changes alone, climate changes with CO2 fertilization, and climate changes with CO2 fertilization and adaptation. Relative to yields simulated under a current, control climate scenario, domain-wide soybean yield decreased by 49% with the coarse-scale climate change scenario alone, and by 26% with consideration for CO2 fertilization. By contrast, the fine-scale climate change scenario generally exhibited higher temperatures and lower precipitation in the summer months resulting in greater yield decreases (69% for climate change alone and 54% with CO2 fertilization). Changing planting date and shifting cultivars mitigated impacts, but yield still decreased by 8% and 18% respectively for the coarse and fine climate change scenarios. The results were similar for sorghum. Yield decreased by 51%, 42%, and 15% in response to fine-scale climate change alone, CO2 fertilization, and adaptation cases, respectively — significantly worse than with the coarse-scale (CSIRO) scenarios. Adaptation strategies tempered the impacts of moisture and temperature stress during pod-fill and grain-fill periods and also differed with respect to the scale of the climate change scenario.