Maize growth: assessing the effects of global warming and CO 2 fertilization with crop models

Abstract

Projected future climate change scenarios derived from two General Circulation Models (GCMs): Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), and two crop models: Crop Estimation through Resources and Environmental Synthesis (CERES), and Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC), were considered to assess the climate change impact on the yield and biomass of maize. Climate change scenarios included changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation from two GCMs interpolated to 1° × 1° grid cells in the central Piedmont in North Carolina. Changes in mean monthly temperature and precipiation from the GCMs were used to adjust observed daily climate records from 1949–1988. There is convincing evidence that future temperature linked to global warming might be characterized by asymmetric change between daily daytime maxima and daily nighttime minima. Two hypotheses regarding how GCM temperature would alter observational record were examined. The first assumed that daytime and nighttime warming occurs symmetrically, i.e., maximum and minimum temperatures are raised equally. The second hypothesis assumed that nightime minima change is three times greater than daytime maxima change and the change in mean diurnal temperature range is approximately equal to the change in daily mean temperature. For the equal day-night warming scenario, when only the effects of climate change (i.e., changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) were considered, simulations with CERES and EPIC indicated substantial losses in maize grain yield and tolar above ground biomass with both the GCM scenarios. For the asymmetric warming, the reduction in biomass and yield due to climate change was less than that obtained with symmetric warming. Simulated maize yield and biomass with CERES and EPIC increased when only effects due to CO 2-fertilization were considered. The inclusion of CO 2 fertilization effects with those due to climate change resulted in higher biomass and yield compared to values obtained with effects of climate change alone. When CERES was used with the GFDL scenario, and the effects of CO 2 fertilization and the climate change were combined, no difference in simulated yield was found between the two hypotheses; only an 8% difference in aboveground biomass was found when the UKMO scenario was used. When EPIC was used, the differential day-night warming hypothesis resulted in 9–13% less reduction in biomass and yield than did the use of the equal day-night warming hypothesis.