Abstract
Abstract Climate change affects the water cycle in different regions. The response of annual runoff and seasonal distribution to climate change in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River during 2021–2050 was studied by coupling the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This model was driven by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River has a unique response to climate change. The maximum and minimum temperatures will increase with the increase in emissions, especially in December–January. The daily precipitation shows an upward trend, especially in July–August in the RCP4.5 scenario. The annual runoff shows an upward trend with the increase in emissions. Compared with the current increase of 13–26%, the most prominent period is November–April. Because the study area covers high mountains and gorge landforms, the altitude difference is great, and the influence of evapotranspiration and snow melting processes is more prominent, causing the monthly runoff to decrease in June–July with an increase in precipitation. From April to May, precipitation decreased while runoff increased.
Highlights
The fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report pointed out that the average temperature has risen by 0.65–1.06 °C in the past 120 years (Qin & Thomas 2014)
Birkinshaw et al (2017) showed that under the RCP8.5 typical concentration paths, the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges reservoir would increase by 4.1% between 2041 and 2070
From 2020 to 2050, the temperature in the study area shows an upward trend under climate change
Summary
The fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report pointed out that the average temperature has risen by 0.65–1.06 °C in the past 120 years (Qin & Thomas 2014). Climate change alters the original water cycle and changes the distribution and the total number of water resources, thereby increasing extreme hydrological events. The response of water resources to future climate change usually follows the future climate scenario settings, such as hydrological simulation of future events (Chen et al 2014; Yang et al 2015). Wang et al (2015) showed that under the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2, the precipitation and runoff would be reduced in the Yangtze River. Su et al (2017) analyzed the runoff changes in the Yangtze River using CMIP5 climate models. Birkinshaw et al (2017) showed that under the RCP8.5 typical concentration paths, the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges reservoir would increase by 4.1% between 2041 and 2070. Due to the apparent increase in evapotranspiration caused, the inflow of the Three Gorges reservoir
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