Abstract
Abstract Climate change is one of the major challenges affecting natural ecosystems and various aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and the quantitative recognition of these effects creates more readiness to deal with its consequences. In the present study, the 2006–2100 period is predicted based on the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Finally, the effects of climate change on the hydrological conditions in the Darabad watershed are simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The SWAT model calibration is done based on the SUFI-2 algorithm, and the effective and optimal parameter is identified. The results of the study, while confirming the efficiency of both SDSM in climate simulations and SWAT in hydrological simulation, showed that the increase in precipitation and temperature is probably in future climate conditions for the 2010–2040 period. The surface flow and runoff at the watershed area during the observation period (1970–2010) is 0.29 m3/s, but this value for the predicted period with regard to climate change in the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios is equal to 0.43, 0.44, and 0.45 m3/s. The results of research, while highlighting the importance of effects of climate change, make it essential to apply them for proper management in order to adapt to climate change in the future policies of the Darabad watershed management.
Highlights
The results of this study showed that in the upcoming period, the accessible water levels would be increased by 7–11% in the mentioned scenarios
To select the appropriate NCEP variables in the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), 70% of the data for training and 30% for the evaluation were selected, but in this research, the historical data were used to evaluate the performance of the SDSM from 1961 to 2005
The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of SDSM and CanESM2 model, evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the precipitation and runoff simulation, and to study the climate change process and its effect on runoff
Summary
Numerous studies have been conducted in Iran and around the world regarding the potential impacts of. Using global data available from the last century, it was found that the global runoff is increased by 4% with the earth temperature rising by 1% (Vera et al ; Narsimlu et al ). The increase in temperature, severe droughts, rise in sea levels, exacerbation of climate phenomena, the melt of mountain glaciers, and decrease in polar ice glaciers are among the effects of climate change. Climate change leads to dramatic changes in hydrosphere, biosphere, and ecosphere, with hydrological consequences such as water stresses
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
