Abstract
A variety of responses to climate change have been reported for northern tree populations, primarily from tree-ring and satellite-based studies. Here we employ provenance data to examine growth and survival responses of northern populations (defined here as those occurring north of 52° N) of black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) to southward seed transfers. This space for time substitution affords insights into potential climate change responses by these important northern tree species. Based on previous work, we anticipated relatively flat response curves that peak at much warmer temperatures than those found at seed source origin. These expectations were generally met for growth-related responses, with peak growth associated with seed transfers to environments with mean annual temperatures 2.2 and 3.6 °C warmer than seed source origin for black spruce and jack pine, respectively. These findings imply that northern tree populations harbor a significant amount of resilience to climate warming. However, survival responses told a different story, with both species exhibiting reduced survival rates when moved to warmer and drier environments. Together with the growth-based results, these findings suggest that the warmer and drier conditions expected across much of northern Canada under climate change may reduce survival, but surviving trees may grow at a faster rate up until a certain magnitude of climate warming has been reached. We note that all relationships had high levels of unexplained variation, underlining the many factors that may influence provenance study outcomes and the challenges in predicting tree responses to climate change. Despite certain limitations, we feel that the provenance data employed here provide valuable insights into potential climate change outcomes for northern tree populations.
Highlights
High latitude regions have experienced significant climate change over the past century [1]
Application of the quadratic formula revealed that height growth equal to or greater than that expected at the local planting site was associated with transfers up to 4.4 ◦C warmer than seed source origin
Together with the growth-based results, these findings suggest that the warmer and drier conditions expected across much of northern Canada under climate change [3] may reduce survival, but that surviving trees may grow at a faster rate until a certain magnitude of climate warming is reached
Summary
High latitude regions have experienced significant climate change over the past century [1]. In the Canadian Arctic region, mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation have increased by 2–3 ◦C and 20–50% respectively since 1948 [2]. This region is projected to experience significant climate changes in the coming decades, including increases in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of 2–8 ◦C and 10–30%, respectively [3] Accompanying these projected changes in average conditions are changes in climate extremes, including more hot days, fewer freezing days, and more frequent heavy precipitation events [3]. Given these dire projections, numerous studies have examined plant growth and survival in relation to climate change in far northern regions. Studies using remotely-sensed growth index data have reported climate change responses that vary by region and tree species [10,11,12]
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