Response of an Ocean Mixed Layer Model in 30-Day December Forecasts with a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

Abstract

Abstract A mixed layer model of the upper ocean was coupled to the global medium-range forecast model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The ocean model is of the type commonly referred to as a bulk model and includes detailed parameterizations of wind mixing, convective overturning, heating and cooling by surface fluxes, heating by penetrative radiation, and large-scale vertical advection driven by the curl of the wind stress. It is run on the, Gaussian grid of the T62 version of the atmospheric model. The ocean and atmospheric models exchange information once every 3 h. Results are presented from a series of nine 30-day December forecasts. Each of the nine cases consisted of a one-way interaction forecast (the atmosphere forces the ocean only) and a two-way interaction forecast (predicted sea surface temperatures fed back into the atmospheric model). In the one-way forecasts, the model's skill is better than persistence at all times and comparable to or better than a persistent initia...