Resilient power system planning using probabilistic health indices

Abstract

In the last price control review, the UK regulator has specified a common set of “network output measures” that includes both system-wide and individual asset metrics. This paper introduces a two-stage framework for the replacement planning and develops the second – simulation stage. It consists of two Monte Carlo procedures, where the latter is based on the proposed probabilistic health index (HI) methodology and application of several types of asset interventions, such as minimal, minor and major repairs and replacement. The probabilistic HI model makes use of proportional hazard models and Kijima II virtual – age model. The outputs are system-wide and nodal reliability indices, as well as asset interventions and asset profiles. IEEE test network is used to test the probabilistic HI methodology, which is then compared to the deterministic HI method applied in the UK.