Resilience of the Russian coal industry in the context of energy transition and decarbonization

Abstract

The authors undertake an assessment of growth prospects of the Russian coal industry in the modern world using the economic resilience concept. To this effect, the concept is adapted to the industry analysis. The modern research approaches to resilience—the engineering (equilibrium), ecological and evolutionary resilience—are compared, the strong points and vulnerabilities of each approach are discussed with a view to the coal industry analysis, and the time limits of the analysis are selected. The study identifies and substantiates the tools and criteria most suitable for the resilience analysis of the coal industry. The authorial procedure of assessment of the current and long-term resilience in the Russian coal industry synthesizes the general resilience index βrescom and the aggregate resilience index m βres&βcom. The current and long-term resilience of the Russian coal industry is assessed over the period of 2011–2018, four segments with different current and long-term resilience are specified in the industry, and the companies in each segment are described. The accomplished analysis has allowed the authors to arrive at a well-found conclusion on the current and long-term nonresilience of the Russian coal industry between 2011 and 2018, and, moreover, the situation gets even worse under conditions of energy transition and economic sanctions. Yet the authors claim a differentiated approach to selecting development trajectories for individual segments of the coal industry can help stabilize the state of things. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 22–28-01803, https://rscf.ru/project/22-28-01803/, and used equipment of the Shared Use Center at the Kemerovo State University under the state contract with the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, Contract No. 075-15-2021-694 dated 5 August 2021, ID RF-2296.61321X0032.