Стрессоустойчивость российской угольной отрасли в условиях энергоперехода, декарбонизации и экономических санкций

Abstract

The article assesses the prospects for the development of the Russian coal industry in the current conditions using the concept of economic resilience. For this purpose, the concept was adapted to the tasks of the industry analysis. The article compares modern trends in studying resilience, i.e. engineering (equilibrium), environmental and evolutionary approaches, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of each approach in terms of their use for analyzing the coal industry, and defines the time frame of the analysis. The paper selects and justifies the tools and indicators most suitable for analyzing the resilience of the coal industry, and proposes the author's methodology for assessing the current and long-term resilience of the Russian coal industry based on the synthesis of the βrescom general resilience index and the βres&βcom composite resilience index. A general assessment of the current and long-term resilience of the Russian coal industry is given for the period of 2011-2018, four segments of the industry with different degrees of current and long-term resilience have been identified, and examples of companies included in each of the segments are provided. The analysis allowed the authors to make a reasonable conclusion about the current and long-term volatility of the Russian coal industry in the period of 2011-2018, while in the context of the energy transition and economic sanctions the situation is deteriorating. However, the authors argue that a differentiated approach to the selection of the development paths for individual segments of the coal industry can help stabilize its situation.