Resilience of emergency infrastructure networks after flooding events

Abstract

Extreme weather events can drastically influence the dynamics and stability of networked infrastructure systems like transportation networks or power grids. Climate change is increasing the frequency of such events, making their impact on human society and ecosystems increasingly relevant. Prominent examples include damage of critical infrastructure caused by heavy rainfalls and landslides. The devastating floods that struck Germany’s Ahr valley in 2021 are yet another reminder of the threat posed by such extreme events. Due to washed-out roads and further severe infrastructure damages, critical bottlenecks effectively cut off a substantial share of the population from assistance, hampering or even impeding their rescue.In this study, we investigate the impact of flood events on transportation networks where stability is particularly important in order to ensure the accessibility of emergency services. Local changes in the underlying network dynamics can affect the whole road network and, in the worst case, cause a total collapse of the system through cascading failures. Because of the severe consequences of cascading events, we aim to recognise such spreading processes at an early stage and, in a further step, be able to prevent them. To this end, we set up a gravity model of travel to simulate the changes of the traffic load after flooding events to identify vulnerabilities in the system. We further analyse how the accessibility of emergency services is affected and if the population can be effectively reached in time.