Resilience assessment of international cobalt trade network

Abstract

As an important strategic mineral resource, the scarcity and uneven distribution of cobalt resources, as well as the deepening trend of energy structure shift to clean type, will further promote the flow of cobalt resources on a global scale. This paper therefore takes an industrial chain perspective and integrates the upstream and downstream products of cobalt ore to carve out a directional weighted network of four types of cobalt ore trade, proposes an evolutionary model to assess the static structural resilience evolution of the network, and uses disruption simulation to measure network resilience when subjected to shocks and to identify dominant nodes. The results show from 2002 to 2020 that the resilience of the cobalt ore and cobalt scrap network evolves negatively, while the cobalt oxide and cobalt products network evolves positively. When subjected to external shocks, the cobalt ore and cobalt scrap network is less resilient and more vulnerable to disruptions, with the main countries impacted being the U.S., Germany, the UK, China, and India. Finally, policy recommendations are offered to show the significance of safeguarding the stability of global cobalt ore trade.