Abstract
The urban water supply system environment is becoming more complicated and unpredictable than ever before in the context of global climate change and expanding urbanization. Existing studies have adopted either static or dynamic approaches to assess the resilience of water supply systems without combining the two. Previous literature mostly establishes rigid quantitative metrics for resilience assessment, often without depicting the dynamics and adaptability of system resilience. For example, these studies usually fail to provide a critical point for identifying system resilience. To accurately describe the dynamics and adaptability of water supply system resilience under uncertain scenarios, in this study, we constructed a comprehensive framework based on the qualitative assessment of the input parameters, combining static and dynamic assessment, with the latter playing a dominant role based on the system perspective of pressure–state–influence–response. Taking Qingdao as a case study, we combined this framework with the system resilience theory, and statically assessed the five types of capitals and three attributes of resilience with the capital portfolio approach (CPA). Then, we dynamically assessed the resilience of urban water supply systems and identified critical points with the dynamic socio-technical model coupled with system resilience and the fitting analysis method. The results are as follows: (1) the static assessment results demonstrate an imbalanced development in the levels of the five types of capitals (financial capital, management efficiency, infrastructure, available water resources, and adaptation) and three attributes (robustness, recoverability, and adaptability) in the water supply systems of Qingdao. (2) The dynamic assessment results show that the current resilience trajectory of the water supply systems in Qingdao is that of a city in transition. (3) The fitting analysis shows that robustness (RB) has a linear relationship with resilience, recoverability (RE) has a non-linear relationship with resilience, and the critical points are RB = 0.70 and RE = 1.20. The research findings provide a reference for studying resilience mechanisms, internal attribute relationships, and resilience enhancement measures of urban water supply systems.
Highlights
The current scientific consensus is that, under the background of global climate change and rapid urbanization, the future of extreme weather events may increase in intensity and frequency in the urban environment, becoming unprecedentedly complex and uncertain
Results order of to Resilience identify theCritical critical Points points Identification of system resilience improvement, it was necInclarify order to critical points ofand system resilience improvement, it was necesessary to theidentify impactthe of the robustness recoverability of the five capital items to clarify the impact of theresilience
→ management inframanagement efficiency is improved to the ideal state → management efficiency and instructure are improved to the ideal state → management efficiency, infrastructure, and frastructure are improved to the ideal state → management efficiency, infrastructure, and water resources are improved to the ideal state → management efficiency, infrastructure, water resources are improved to the ideal state → management efficiency, infrastructure, water resources, and adaptiveness are improved to the ideal state
Summary
The current scientific consensus is that, under the background of global climate change and rapid urbanization, the future of extreme weather events (for example, extreme temperature, continuous drought, extreme rainfall) may increase in intensity and frequency in the urban environment, becoming unprecedentedly complex and uncertain. The water sector should assess the safety and resilience of urban water supply systems under multiple simultaneous extreme events [1,2,3,4]. Coastal urban water supply systems are faced with the huge internal pressure of population growth, and with increasing external disturbance events, such as seawater intrusion, saltwater intrusion, and storm surges. A variety of compound and superimposed disturbance events aggravate the security of urban water supply facilities [5]. The excessive groundwater extraction in many coastal cities due to insufficient surface freshwater resources has led to ground subsidence, and water quality is susceptible to seawater intrusion, which further deteriorates urban water supply security [6]. California’s coastal aquifers are already under pressure due to excessive water extraction and sustained and severe drought. A clear example of complex interactions on the urban scale is the issue of land subsidence
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