Reservoir Characterization of McMurray Formation by 2D Geostatistical Modeling

Abstract

There is a need to estimate reserve uncertainty for large lease areas. Detailed 3D models of heterogeneity are not necessarily required, but there is a need to integrate all available data into an in-situ reserve estimate with uncertainty. A 2D mapping approach is presented to appraise reserves accounting for multiple variables, multiple data sources, and uncertainty. The approach can be considered in three primary steps: (1) Bayesian updating is used to determine local distributions of uncertainty for each primary variable while integrating multiple secondary information, (2) matrix simulation is employed to jointly and simultaneously simulate multiple collocated variables to determine a derived variable such as OOIP, and (3) probability field simulation then is applied to permit joint simulation of multiple locations. This methodology permits local and global uncertainty assessment while integrating multiple sources of information. An application to the McMurray Formation in Alberta, Canada is demonstrated.