Abstract
Most of the typhoons that impact coastal regions of Vietnam occur from the north to the central part, between June and November. As a result of global warming, typhoon intensities are expected to increase. Therefore, an assessment of various typhoon strengths is essential. In this study, Typhoon Lekima, which hit Vietnam in 2007, was simulated by weather research and forecast models, using ensemble simulation methodology. Reproductive results of the typhoon intensity are similar to actual estimated values from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Also, the variation of typhoon intensities and heavy rainfall in future climate scenarios was investigated using numerical simulations based on pseudo global warming conditions, constructed using fifth-phase results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model global warming experiments. Simulation results of five Pseudo Global Warming (PGW_FF) models indicate that intensities of the typhoon will be magnified in future climate. The minimum sea level pressure of typhoons similar to Typhoon Lekima in the future will increase from 8 hPa to 9 hPa, and the spatial distribution of maximum wind speed and tracked direction will move towards the southern regions. Total precipitation will significantly increase for a maximum of six hours, and the spatial distribution of heavy rain caused by typhoons will shift from the north to the southwest of Vietnam. In the future, simulated results showed that global warming correlates strongly with a significant increase in typhoon intensity and heavy rain.
Highlights
IntroductionThe possible change in tropical cyclone intensity is a matter of great concern to the public and scientists
Climate change has become a topic of much concern in recent years
It is clear that the simulation results of minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) from nineteen ensemble members show that MSLP is higher than the estimated value from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in the first 60 h of typhoon Lekima, from 06:00 UTC 01 October to 18:00
Summary
The possible change in tropical cyclone intensity is a matter of great concern to the public and scientists. One of the significant concerns about the consequences of 21st-century climate change is the increase in typhoon intensity. Many studies have attempted to predict future climate change associated with warmer sea surface temperature (SST) using increased CO2 scenarios, global circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models. Most of the studies projected a future increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from +2 to +11% globally [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]. Using the downscaling Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models, Emanuel et al (2008) and Emanuel (2013) showed increased tropical cyclone activity in the western North
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