Robust responses of typhoon hazards in northern Japan to global warming climate: cases of landfalling typhoons in 2016

Abstract

AbstractIn August 2016, an unusual occurrence of the landfall of four typhoons in northern Japan caused severe and widespread damage by excessive rainfall and high wind. This study examines the characteristics and structure of these typhoons and the responses to the global warming climate to explore the robust features of typhoon hazards in northern Japan in a future warming climate. By obtaining similar typhoon tracks under the 2016 conditions and a pseudo global warming (PGW) climate, we found that the typhoon intensity under the PGW climate becomes stronger with higher lifetime maximum wind up to ~10 m·s−1 and lower lifetime minimum sea level pressure of ~20 hPa. Rainfall associated with the typhoons indicated a robust increase in northern Japan in the PGW climate, while the changes in surface winds in the PGW climate depend on the case. A higher rate of intensification and more availability of energy are expected in the future warming climate especially over the landfall regions. All the typhoons except Typhoon Lionrock, after making landfall over Hokkaido region, exhibited a much deeper cold core structure in the future climate. Overall results suggest that the hazards related to typhoons over northern Japan will be more severe in the future warming climate.