Research on time series prediction of hybrid intelligent systems based on deep learning

Abstract

Power forecasting plays a crucial role in the operation of smart grid system, which is indispensable for making the operation plan of power system, improving economic efficiency and ensuring the quality of power supply. In order to enhance the accuracy of power load forecasting, a hybrid intelligent power load forecasting system is proposed in this paper. The system first preprocesses the raw data using Savitzky-Golay smoothing technology to eliminate noise and improve data quality. Then, a long and short term memory network with attention mechanism is used to enhance the generalization ability of the model. In addition, in order to further improve the prediction performance, an improved genetic algorithm is integrated to optimize the model parameters. Finally, a data set is used to verify the proposed prediction method. In terms of short-term forecasting ability of experiment of the testing data set, compared with LSTM model, the proposed method shows superior performance in root mean square error and mean absolute error indicators, with root mean square error reduced by 18.7 % and mean absolute error reduced by 26.2 %. In terms of long-term prediction ability of experiment of the testing data set, compared with GBRT model, the proposed method reduces root mean square error and mean absolute error by 24.8 % and 30.7 %, respectively. The experimental results show that compared with the existing benchmark algorithm, the proposed method is significantly improved in two key indexes of prediction accuracy, which proves its effectiveness and superiority in power load prediction.