Abstract
Climate elements are important indicators of climate change in China’s main grain-producing areas during the April–September growth season and affect the growth and yield of crops. This paper combines grain concentration and geographical detector to divide the North and South regions of China’s main grain production. The linear trend and Morlet wavelet transform methods are used to analyse the characteristics of climate change based on observational climate data from April to September 1981–2015. The results show that the climate in the North region is warm and dry during the growth season, whereas the climate is warm and humid in the South region. The main periods of the change in temperature in the North and South regions are 3 years, and that in precipitation is 5 years, and that in sunshine hours is 3–4 years. Changes in the climate elements in various provinces show complex, varying and regional characteristics of cold-warm and dry-wet cycles. The changes in climate elements are significant and different climatic conditions and regions have various possible impacts on grain production in China during the growth season. For China’s agricultural-economy sustainable development and grain security, the study suggests that governments should place more emphasis on climatic element changes during the growth season and invest more money in disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the main grain-producing areas.
Highlights
China is sensitive to the effects of global climate change (Wu et al 2012; IPCC 2014)
12 main grain-producing areas are classified into two main regions—a South region and a North region—with different climatic factors
The South region includes the provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Sichuan
Summary
China is sensitive to the effects of global climate change (Wu et al 2012; IPCC 2014). Extreme weather and climate events have increased in strength and the risk of such events has generally increased (Qian et al 2007; Ren et al 2010; Sun et al 2014) These changes in climate will have a major impact on grain production and food security in China (Chavas et al 2009; Sanchez et al 2014; Lesk et al 2016). The work is to provide a reference for the analysis of the variation of climatic elements in China’s main grain-producing areas on multiple timescales and for impact assessments of climate change. The study can help local relevant departments to Badapt to local conditions^ and formulate reasonable and effective policies
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