Research on the Throughput Prediction of Coastal Ports in China

Abstract

Coastal ports play a pivotal role in ensuring the healthy development of China's national economy and society and the smooth flow of global supply chain. The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is impacting the global supply chain system. In this context, China's coastal port throughput prediction has become the focus of attention. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a model to accurately predict the throughput of coastal ports in China. This paper constructs the economy-industry bi-directional prediction model. It also provides a possibility for forecasting the throughput of China's coastal ports during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. On the one hand, build a model to measure the relationship between economic growth and coastal port throughput growth. On the other hand, the model is constructed to measure the correlation between major goods such as coal, iron ore and crude oil. Thus, another result of coastal port throughput is obtained. Given the corresponding weights of the two results, the final prediction results are obtained. It is concluded that on the basis of 2020, China's coastal port throughput will reach 10.7 billion tons by 2025, with an average annual increase of 2.5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. China's coastal port throughput growth rate will slow down. The scale of transportation demand should be fully demonstrated in the future port infrastructure construction.