Research on the Tencent Company Stock Price Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of Tencent Holdings Limited's stock performance over the past five years. This paper explores the multifaceted factors influencing stock price volatility, including economic indicators, regulatory changes, industry developments, and technological innovations. Employing an ARIMA (0,1,0) model, this paper assesses the time series data of Tencent's stock price and scrutinize model adequacy through various statistical tests. Results suggest that the constant term in the ARIMA model may not be statistically significant, which emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach to stock price modeling. Predictive values for a 12-phase forecast reveal a declining trend in Tencent's stock price. The root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) is computed to gauge prediction accuracy. Additionally, the residual Lagrange multiplier correlation finds no significant correlation between residuals and independent variables. This analysis underscores the complexity of stock price determination and advocates for a holistic approach, consider both numerical analysis and qualitative factors. Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective when evaluating Tencent's market potential.