Abstract
Greater contradiction and conflict among urban green space, the development of social economy and the environment have occurred in Beijing. However, few studies have been conducted that consider the three subsystems as a whole. In this study, we defined sustainable development of green space (SDGS) as the coordinated development of the urban green system, social economy, and environment. Based on the datasets from 2000 to 2015, we forecast the SDGS in Beijing under multiple scenarios based on real-world policies using a system dynamics model. We found that the historical SDGS value increased to its highest level in 2012, but declined slightly by 2015. Second, the forecasted SDGS values declined over time in all scenarios, but the decline was greater in scenarios placing a high priority on economic development. In these scenarios, the performance of the indices only improved in certain subsystems. The simulation shows the implementation of the four policies proposed by the government failed to improve the overall level of SDGS in Beijing. This study could provide support for decision-making designed to improve the overall condition of urban green space in Beijing through integrated forecast and scenario simulation.
Highlights
Urban green space is an important component of a city that is closely related to the health and well-being of city dwellers [1]
The Landscape and Greening Plan (LGP) scenario would have some positive effects on the performance of the urban green space subsystem
The sustainable development of green space (SDGS) model includes spatial simulation, which is able to capture the spatial features of green space; this aspect should be considered in future simulation studies; (3) Our research shows that the social economy subsystem could experience a decreasing trend because of the constant increase of GDP in Beijing
Summary
Urban green space is an important component of a city that is closely related to the health and well-being of city dwellers [1]. The development of urban green space has a positive relationship with the environment and the social economy referring to the financial economy and human activities related to urbanization. Urban green spaces generate ecosystem services, foster resilience in cities [5] and improve the quality of the environment, providing comfortable living conditions with clean air and a beautiful, ecologically sound environment. Urban development and increased economic activity have caused many changes to the existing urban green space in well-developed city regions worldwide [7]
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