Research on the spatiotemporal evolution of land use landscape pattern in a county area based on CA-Markov model

Abstract

• Discussed the impact of road factor on the land use simulation prediction at the agricultural county scale to optimize the CA-Markov model. • Analyzed the characteristics and laws of the temporal and spatial evolution of the land use landscape pattern in Mianzhu City from 2008 to 2026. • Proposed the optimization strategies of land use structure under the concept of low-carbon development. The study of the landscape pattern of land use has important practical significance for land use planning and constructing ecological cities. CA, a dynamic modeling approach, has been widely used to simulate future land use change. This study simulated and predicted the land use landscape pattern of Mianzhu City using the CA-Markov model. The spatiotemporal changes and evolution characteristics of the land use landscape pattern from 2008 to 2026 were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Using land use data covering 2008, 2014, and 2020, the road factor parameter range was revised to 50 m, and the CA-Markov model was optimized. In terms of the composition of land types, forest and farmland account for more than 75% of the total area; construction and water areas increase significantly over time. The number of patches (NP) and patch density (PD), which reflect the degree of fragmentation, of landscapes from 2008 to 2020 were higher than 17,500 and 14, respectively. With higher fragmentation, lower agglomeration, and higher landscape diversity and uniformity, various indexes are predicted to have high values in 2026, indicating a significant decrease in fragmentation. In summary, strategies such as planning system, landscape pattern optimization, model modification, and land use patterns under the concept of low-carbon development are proposed. The findings will provide reference for promoting the construction of ecological cities.