Abstract
This paper employed dynamic generalized method of moment methods to measure the growth effect of 202 prefecture-level cities covered by 14 national urban agglomerations in China from 2007 to 2016. Based on this, this paper further explored the main factors affecting the growth of urban agglomeration and the path to achieving sustainable growth from the aspects of system, technology, structure, and influencing factors, and used the dynamic panel data (DPD) model and threshold panel data to empirically test the growth effect of urban agglomerations. The empirical results showed the following. (1) From the perspective of influencing factors, the improvement of technology and the increase in technology expenditure had a good growth effect on urban agglomeration, and this growth effect became more and more significant as the economic development level within the urban agglomeration narrowed; moreover, the increase of the agglomeration degree could alleviate the negative externality caused by the expansion of the urban scale and produce the dispersion effect to relieve the pressure of urban agglomeration. (2) From the results of the growth effect of urban agglomerations, the growth effect of multi-core urban agglomerations was more significant than that of single-core and dual-core urban agglomerations, and technology, agglomeration degree, foreign direct investment and human capital all significantly promoted the growth of urban agglomerations. Compared with trans-provincial urban agglomerations, provincial urban agglomerations have less resistance due to administrative jurisdiction, and the growth effect was obvious. (3) From the perspective of regional differences, the growth momentum of urban agglomerations in the eastern region was significantly stronger than that in the central and western regions, and the growth effect of agglomeration degree, technology, and human capital on urban agglomeration were all stronger than that in the central and western regions. Considering that the spatial distance between the edge cities and the central cities of the urban agglomeration will have an important impact on the overall growth of the urban agglomeration, this paper then used the panel threshold method to deeply discuss the influence mechanism and path dependence of the agglomeration degree on the growth of urban agglomerations. The results showed that within a certain spatial scale, a higher agglomeration degree of an urban agglomeration creates a stronger radiation effect of the core city and more obvious growth momentum of the urban agglomeration. In the future development of urban agglomerations, it is necessary to clarify the functions of the core city, vigorously develop new technologies, strengthen the construction of the core city as well as maximize its radiation and driving effect on the surrounding cities. Meanwhile, the government should improve transportation, increase the construction of urban expressways and railways, strengthen the connection between cities, strengthen regional integration and cooperation, and give play to the role of human capital in promoting growth to achieve the stable and continuous growth of urban agglomerations.
Highlights
Urban agglomeration is a collection of cities with central cities as the core that radiate to the surrounding areas
(2) From the results of the growth effect of urban agglomerations, the growth effect of multi-core urban agglomerations was more significant than that of single-core and dual-core urban agglomerations, and technology, agglomeration degree, foreign direct investment and human capital all significantly promoted the growth of urban agglomerations
On 18 November 2018, the Communist Party of China and the state council issued vital opinions on establishing a new, more effective mechanism for regional coordinated development that represents the proposal of the national major regional strategy promoted by urban agglomerations such as the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration, the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the Central Henan urban agglomeration, and the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, which has led to the formal establishment of a new model in which the central city leads the development of urban agglomerations and urban agglomerations drive regional development
Summary
Urban agglomeration is a collection of cities with central cities as the core that radiate to the surrounding areas. Central cities with a high density of economy and mature degree of capital accumulation could transfer in terms of factors, industries, technologies, and talent to the surrounding cities By virtue of their superior geographical locations and obvious industrial advantages, central cities will have “siphon effects” on surrounding cities, which could promote regional coordinated development and produce a good growth effect on urban agglomeration [8,9,10]. It breaks through the perspective of a traditional comparative study of urban agglomerations, makes an in-depth analysis of the development mode of south and north urban agglomerations, and finds out the differentiated development path of south and north urban agglomerations It discusses the urban agglomerations with a different number of core cities by sample, and discusses the economic growth effect of urban agglomerations under different administrative divisions to determine the future development trend of urban agglomerations.
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