Abstract
To achieve a high penetration of renewable energy, wind power development in China has gradually moved to diverse manifestation (e.g., centralized onshore, low wind speed, and offshore wind power). However, preexisting studies regarding wind power cost neglect to consider the respective characteristics of different development scenarios. In this paper, the overall levelized cost of energy (OLCOE) model is established for different scenarios. Taking China’s wind farm data as an example, the impact of development scenarios and wind power permeability on OLCOE and its cost components is quantitatively analysed. The results show that, (1) in the low penetration scenario, low wind speed power has the best economy and is beneficial to the conventional units; (2) the large-scale development of offshore wind power requires a reduction in the cost of offshore wind turbines and submarine cables; and (3) at present, onshore centralized wind power has economic advantages, but there is little room for its cost reduction.
Highlights
Rapid global energy transformation is bringing, within reach, an era with a high share of renewables
A modelling method for wind power production and its unpredictability is proposed by analysing the technical limitations of a series of wind turbines, and the generation cost of wind power and its effect on carbon dioxide emission are discussed [3]. e levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for future wind power is estimated with the learning curve method, and the results show that the LCOE for onshore wind power will decrease by 13.91% from 0.40 yuan/kWh in 2016 to 0.34 yuan/kWh in 2025 [4]
An LCOE estimation method taking audit information into account is proposed [5]. e uncertainty of input variables in an LCOE calculation is Mathematical Problems in Engineering discussed, such as variables related to operation cost, initial investment, and power generation, and the probabilities and their confidence interval of an LCOE larger than its set threshold are estimated by using the joint probability distribution of the LCOE obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation [6]. e research results on the generation cost of some European wind power projects are summarized, and the results show that the utilization hours and initial investment cost have the greatest effect on the generation cost of offshore wind power
Summary
Rapid global energy transformation is bringing, within reach, an era with a high share of renewables. In the context of this, new concepts and a general methodology are proposed to quantify wind power uncertainty incremental cost and wind power uncertainty dispatch cost based on probabilistic forecasting of wind power [13] On this basis, the concept of overall levelized cost of energy (OLCOE) for wind power is introduced in the authors’ previous work, covering generation cost, transmission cost, and integration cost. Most large windpower bases in China are generally located in the northeast, northwest, and north of China, far away from load centers in the east For these regions, the system LCOE for wind power is high due to the cost of transmission and power curtailment. A life cycle cost model (LCC) for offshore wind power by considering factors, such as location, water depth, and distance to shore, is developed to compare the economics of three different offshore wind farms [15]. $ $ $ $ $/MVA $/km None km $/year $/year $/kW · h $/year $/kg MW Mvar kcal/kg kcal/kg None None Ω/km None h h kV kW · h/year MW · h/year MWh/year MWh/year kW · h kW · h h None None
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