Research on the impact of regional integration policy on carbon emissions--Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example.

Abstract

The Yangtze River Economic Belt serves as a paradigm of ecological integration and high-quality development within China. Under the constraints of the "Dual Carbon" goal, how does the integrative policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, aimed at reinforcing inter-regional industrial cooperation, impact carbon emissions across various provinces within the region? Leveraging panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2009-2019 and treating the 2016 promulgation of the "Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Planning Outline" as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model for discerning the effects of regional integration policies on carbon emissions, intensity, and efficiency in the 11 provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The research further delves into the underlying mechanisms through which policy interventions modulate provincial carbon emissions. Key findings include: (1) The policy's enactment has significantly attenuated provincial carbon emissions and intensity, albeit somewhat hampering the enhancement of carbon efficiency-conclusions robust to parallel trend and placebo tests; (2) Heterogeneity analyses reveal disparities in the policy's carbon emission effects, contingent on varying economic development levels and geographical loci; (3) Mechanistically, while the integration bolsters regional environmental governance and strengthens economic ties-thereby curtailing provincial emissions-it is evident that local governments have been somewhat inept in effectively channeling the influx of substantial short-term capital, hence stifling provincial carbon efficiency. In light of these insights, it is posited that local governments within the Yangtze River Economic Belt should ardently endeavor to refine and elevate regional industrial structures, champion the construction of an integrated regional market, intensify capital oversight and coordinated utilization, and enhance the efficiency of regional capital allocation, all in the quest to augment regional carbon emission reduction performance.